The World Bank cut its 2016 global growth forecast today to 2.4 percent, down from the 2.9 percent estimated in January. The move is due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, low commodity prices, weak global trade and diminishing capital flows.
Gold, liking that kind of news, is trading up $ 13.00 on the day, at the time of this report. Silver, the so-called “poor man’s gold,” is trading either side of $17.00 this morning (consider just a week ago the worry was, are we going to hold the $16.00 dollar level?).
Here’s my concern, why is the Fed pushing so hard for a rate increase? Is there something they know that they are not sharing? I think the reason they are so aggressive is they must believe that with a higher interest rate in place they will have room to cut in the event the world goes into a global recession. The last thing the Fed wants to do is to adopt a negative interest rate environment on our shores.
When you look at all the issues at hand around the world, the picture is not a pretty one.
Let me share the World Banks’ view on the Global economy from their report: “In an environment of anemic growth, the global economy faces pronounced risks, including a further slowdown in major emerging markets, sharp changes in financial market sentiment, stagnation in advanced economies, a longer-than-expected period of low commodity prices, geopolitical risks in different parts of the world and concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy in spurring stronger growth.”
Author Name: Walter Pehowich
Walter Pehowich is the executive vice president of precious metals investment services for Dillon Gage with over 38 years of experience in precious metals investment services. His career began in 1977 at Bache (which evolved to Prudential-Bache Securities and then Jefferies Investment Bank). While at Jefferies, he served as senior vice president with oversight of investment grade precious metal products. Pehowich holds a National Futures Association (NFA) Series 3 license, authorizing him to advise and sell alternative investments in commodities and futures markets.