Precious metals resumed trading yesterday while still digesting Friday’s very strong U.S. employment data as discussion and speculation about the timing of a rate hike overshadows our market. On Friday morning, N.Y. Fed President Dudley said that labor market improvement, higher wage compensation and rising inflation must continue in order for him to support a rate increase. While it appears the FOMC is determined to raise rates this year, I continue to think there is enough uncertainty in our economy, and certainly the global economy, that a rate increase this year will be a single event, likely to be in September and perhaps most importantly likely already built into the market.
Overnight, China released data that shows their economy will continue to need further stimulation as their exports declined for a third straight month while their imports declined for a seventh straight month. The import data could weigh on base metals which could bring additional pressure to precious metals. The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed speculative long positions on the exchange continued to decline while speculative short positions continued to increase. This may indicate the trading range of recent months is likely to continue as shorts may be poised to cover their positions and take profits in the support range from $1,155.00 through $1,140.00.
This editorial has been prepared by Roy Friedman of Dillon Gage Metals. This document is for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this editorial only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the opinions provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.