Wall Street traders report seeing selling out of the Far East overnight pushing gold and silver below their first levels of support. Gold broke thru support at $1,068.20 and Silver below the well watched level of $ 14.00.
A closing spot price below $ 13.85 today will give traders conformation that lower prices are in the cards as we approach the FED meeting next week. Most technicians agree that with a settlement above $13.85 can bring us right back to $ 14.00 in a heartbeat. A steady price under $14.00 once again should bring back the retail investor into the physical silver market. Question, can the retail investor support the price below $ 14.00 as they did before. This time I think the majority of retail investors will hesitate buying at these levels and watch what the Fed will do next week.
The anticipated rate hike next week does have some traders on edge because they say that the Fed has not been transparent for years and can be unpredictable. In the event that the FED does anything different from a .25 basis point rise, the traders and I agree, that will create massive volatility in the market. The anticipated rate hike and just as important, the language out of the Fed meeting will have a major impact on the market going forward. Latest probability of a rise in December rate hike next week is at 83 pct., up from 79 pct. earlier in the week. These odds gives the shorts more confidence in their strategy; or are they wrong that it’s baked into the market and we will see a different outcome to the price of gold.
We see a slightly lower Dollar index this morning and Dow in the red as the markets focus on the continued fall in the price of Crude Oil. Currently oil, is the Wall Street traders market of choice. This is what they like to allude to is a market with “VVT.” Volume, Volatility and Trend gives them, as speculators a good chance to make some money as the year comes to an end.
Author Name: Walter Pehowich
Walter Pehowich is the executive vice president of precious metals investment services for Dillon Gage with over 38 years of experience in precious metals investment services. His career began in 1977 at Bache (which evolved to Prudential-Bache Securities and then Jefferies Investment Bank). While at Jefferies, he served as senior vice president with oversight of investment grade precious metal products. Pehowich holds a National Futures Association (NFA) Series 3 license, authorizing him to advise and sell alternative investments in commodities and futures markets.