Home InfoVault Market Reports Crystal Ball Gazing For Gold In 2016

Crystal Ball Gazing For Gold in 2016

Crystal Ball Gazing For Gold in 2016
Category: Market Reports
Author Name:
Posted: 03-22-2016 12:21:00 PM

There are many factors that can cause a tsunami in the gold price, but you need to experience the RUMBLINGS before the big one hits our shores.

Looking into my crystal ball for the rest of the year I see the following factors that affect the price of gold:

First let’s talk about the of price of gold and the US dollar. We all know the value of the US dollar and price of gold are inversely related. Because gold is traded in dollar terms, a weaker dollar will increase the value of gold. As witnessed so far this year, whenever the Fed hints at raising interest rates the dollar strengthens and gold sells off. Forgive me for repeating myself (I’m only trying to make a point), but let’s review, last week the FED said only 2 rate hikes are expected now in 2016, down from 4 previously predicted, and what happened? Gold rallied $32 dollars in an hour. Historically SUPPLY and DEMAND issues SHOULD be the major factor on which moves the price of gold, not Washington FED Governor’s comments. But this is only the beginning.

There are many factors that can cause a tsunami in the gold price, but you need to experience the RUMBLINGS before the big one hits our shores.

I’m here to report the rumblings have started. Gold hit a low of $1,046 late last year as the world started to experience negative interest rates in some foreign countries, which increased physical demand on their shores. No one in these countries can expect any rate of return from the banks with negative rates and some investors are worried about the buying power of their currencies going forward. So gold turns out to be an interesting investment. For some, the only choice.

Another factor you must be aware of is the increased volatility of late in the gold market. Program trading seems to be alive and well as algorithms play an important part in fast movements either up or down in the price of gold. Key words reported by news agencies can trigger the price of gold to move abruptly in either direction. These programs try to take advantage of significant news that hits the tape in hopes of either buying or selling gold before the market can react to the news.

Another factor in 2016 has been the incredible increase in ETF Gold holdings; up almost every day this year. Some equity investors are diversifying their portfolios while they increase their gold holdings as reported by some financial advisors. Historically, funds who participate in this market are usually short term investors, but it seems to me that even when gold has a big down day the Gold ETF increases its holdings.

Another rumble.

When I first started in the gold business in 1976, my boss said, “The best advice I can give you to be successful in this business is not to talk about the following topics with clients: food, religion or politics. You don’t want to offend anyone.”

Well sorry John, in the year 2016 your third choice has to be a topic that we just can’t avoid. My next rumbling that could affect the gold market is to be put into two categories. The Presidential Election and the 19 trillion dollar debt we are facing. I for one believe either the Presidential Election, and/or the increasing National debt can be a significant factor in the price of gold this year.

Potential hostilities later in the year in who will be the Republican candidate AND our elected officials unwilling to address the debt can create turmoil in the markets. Ignoring the debt can cause a downgrade in the credit worthiness of this country. A factor we ignore every day. More rumblings.

So I come back full circle with binoculars watching for more signs the tsunami is underway. But, in my opinion, the last rumbling will be will be evident WHEN and IF we witness a backwardation in the price of gold. We should see the switches collapse to the left on the futures contracts. Where the spot price of gold is gaining aggressively in value over the most active futures month. (Backwardation values are limitless until physical finds its way back into the market) At this point it might be too late to look for your surf board to ride the wave. All the other factors have already weighed in.

Nonetheless, it just might be time to wax the surfboard and “LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE.”

© Copyright 2021 ModernCoinMart (MCM). All Rights Reserved. MCM does not sell coins and numismatics as investments, but rather as collectibles. Please review MCM's Terms and Conditions, Terms of Use and Privacy Policy before using this website and prior to purchasing from MCM. All website content is for reference use only and does not constitute investment, legal or financial advice. We encourage the sharing and linking of our information but reproduction of our news and articles without express permission is prohibited. Instead of reproducing, please provide the link to the original article or use the share buttons provided.

About The Author

Walter Pehowich Author Name: Walter Pehowich
This editorial has been prepared by Dillon Gage Metals. This document is for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this editorial only and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the opinions provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.

What are your thoughts? Crystal Ball Gazing For Gold in 2016